Cumulative Dis-Advantage
April 17, 2007
A system ordered largely by unbalanced positive feedback will continually amplify that feedback. I learned this in 7th grade with my mock fender and gorilla 12 watt amp. So why does Duncan Watts piece in the NYTimes today describing a study proving that popularity affects web site user’s decisions, have many in the blogosphere trumpeting the ironic death of Web2.0, collective intelligence, transparency, and the network effect?
Watt’s article describes his study that was published last year in Science, where more than 14,000 participants registered at their Web site, Music Lab (www.musiclab.columbia.edu), and were asked to listen to, rate and, if they chose, download songs by bands they had never heard of. Some of the participants saw only the names of the songs and bands, while others also saw how many times the songs had been downloaded by previous participants.
The results indicated that songs that jumped to an early lead in number of downloads tended to stay at the top on the web site that provided download numbers; and these popular songs were very different from the ones choosen by users that were not provided that “social” information. Thus, there is a “cummulative advantage” provided to the early downloaded songs - and these early leaders are effectively random, they are simply the preferences of the first users.
So what should we take away from this? Many are using the simple experiment to knock the very core principles of transparency, wisdom of crowds, collective intelligence, and the network effect that are at the core of the leading approach to succesful web sites and systems. Scott Karp - whose sanity amid the Web2.0 hype I always appreciate has really dropped the hammer:
While on one hand, it’s nice to see something we know intuitively - that things already declared popular receive more attention than items without that distinction - proved to be true. On the other, the experiment as performed dramatically over-simplifies the situation for one very big reason: positive feedback loops.
The most successful emergent systems, those where valuable order arises by individuals acting autonomously, are successful through a balance of positive and negative feedback. Everything from thermostats to a human’s sense of balance to ants’ decisions on the best place to store their waste. Can you tell I just read Stevn Johnson’s Emergence?
How dramatically would the results change if you simply gave users the ability to vote songs both up and down? Hard to say, but I would have to guess it would make a difference.
Creating a system that produces quality from simple rules is amazingly complex - netflix is offering a cool $1M for one that improves their movie recommendations. I wouldn’t dismiss the crowd’s wisdom from an experiment that doesn’t allow the wisdom to emerge.
Powered by ScribeFire.
I'm a Managing Director at 
I wonder if you could please help me in configuring ScribeFire with my blogsome account. I’ve seen you’ve done it, so if you could give me tips, i’d be very greatful. Thanx in advance.
Comment by Edgar Ramirez — October 20, 2008 @ 3:34 am
Generally I do not post on blogs, but I would like to say that this post really forced me to do so, Excellent post!ray ban sunglasses
Comment by ray ban sunglasses — February 28, 2011 @ 9:46 am
It is my great pleasure to visit your website .
Comment by torch — March 14, 2011 @ 6:46 am
http://sweta20111.narod.ru/links.html
Comment by sweta — March 14, 2011 @ 11:40 am
Cheap NFL jerseys are your perfect choice during the hot summer also because they are comfortable to wear. Wearing the basketball jerseys, you will still feel the touch of wind rather than be boiled inside. As we all see, NBA jerseys are generally made of cotton mesh, which absorbs sweat as well as permit air to enter. Take one of the most famous ever-been Cheap NFL jerseys for example, they are either made of mesh or dazzle. And the clothes like that is all that need in summer.
Comment by Cheap NFL jerseys — March 15, 2011 @ 4:03 am
I was extremely pleased to find this website. This is a good website.
Comment by true religion jeans — March 15, 2011 @ 4:37 am
NBA is a magic word that associates with numerous dreams. As millions of people are going after NBA matches and NBA stars, they are going after what they wear. It is always said that when you love someone, you’ll love his or her dog. It is the same with the case. And Discount NFL jerseys won’t let you down in the summer for they will make you feel the existence of your favorite NBA star all the time.
Comment by Discount NFL jerseys — March 16, 2011 @ 9:30 am
I really loved this post. You write about this topic very well. I really like your blog and I will definetly bookmark it!
Comment by jordan shoes — March 18, 2011 @ 7:16 am
Great post. I appreciate you bringing this forward
new era caps
Comment by Monster Energy Hats — April 1, 2011 @ 3:56 am
Finding less-expensive bridesmaids’ dresses can make things easier on your friends and family. Learn where to shop for dresses that are pretty, wearable and affordable.
Comment by bridesmaiddress — April 6, 2011 @ 6:24 am
I can see that you are an expert at your field! I am launching a website soon, and your information will be very useful for me.. Thanks for all your help and wishing you all the success in your business.
Comment by mac cosmetics — April 8, 2011 @ 8:11 am
I used to be more than happy to seek out this site.I needed to thanks for this nice learn I undoubtedly having fun with every little little bit of it and I’ve you bookmarked to check out new stuff you post.
Comment by vibram fivefingers — April 11, 2011 @ 3:26 am
Strange this post is totaly unrelated to what I was searching google for, but it was listed on the first page. I guess your doing something right if Google likes you enough to put you on the first page of a non related search. :)
Comment by louis vuitton handbags — April 12, 2011 @ 2:21 am
You…are…my…hero!!! I cant believe something like this exists on the internet! Its so true, so honest, and more than that you dont sound like an idiot! Finally, someone who knows how to talk about a subject without sounding like a kid who didnt get that bike he wanted for Christmas.
Comment by ralph lauren outlet — April 13, 2011 @ 1:56 am
I really love to read some articles that have great positive impacts on its reader and benefit by reading such article especially concerning Gold and the stock market. I admire these writers in sharing their views and or opinions that can enlighten the mind of the readers.
Comment by christian louboutin shoes — April 13, 2011 @ 2:36 am
Thanks for this wonderful post.Admiring the time and effort you put into your blog and detailed information. http://www.myefox.com
Comment by Huawei S7 — April 14, 2011 @ 2:30 am
I was very encouraged to find this site. I wanted to thank you for this special read. http://www.efox-shop.com/
Comment by Dual Sim Handy — April 14, 2011 @ 3:17 am
It’s funny how we adopt words and adapt our lexicon to the times. This is a very useful slant on things.
Comment by tiffany outlet — April 14, 2011 @ 7:19 am
Very very helpful article content. Thank you for sharing the article . It let me know something I didn’t know.
http://www.deberry.de/
Comment by Tablet pc kaufen — April 14, 2011 @ 9:29 am
Great post, what you said is really helpful to me. I agree with you anymore.http://www.myefox.it/
Comment by Android Tablet PC — April 14, 2011 @ 10:25 am
Very very helpful article content. Thank you for sharing the article . It let me know something I didn’t know.
http://www.lvhandbagoutlet.com
Comment by louis vuitton outlet — April 15, 2011 @ 2:00 am